We will cover the perfect timing of the big 8 big shipping decisions: 1) building and 2) buying, vessels, chartering them in 3) spot or 4) time-charters, 5) borrowing from banks or 6) Stock exchanges, 7) buying larger and 8) younger ships. The purpose of this paper is to teach the reader how to apply perfect timing being a manager, (of a shipping company), by providing a number of actual examples. This is our contribution on top of our many and repeated attempts to forecast freight markets. But the answer is that Greeks (e.g., Procopiou, mentioned below) became top ship-owners using the methods described here! Thus, it is better to become a top manager using empirical methods, than to fail following unreal theoretical ones. But one may argue that this is not a scientific method and this paper keeping distances from forecasting, it may be judged as a very elementary manuscript. This paper aims at helping Greek shipowners, empirically, in case when forecasting is not possible. As a result, the ability to forecast had to be replaced by the ability of recognizing the rock bottom prices and the prospective good freight rates. The above basic principle, when it was not respected, led a shipping company to bankruptcy (“Colocotronis” Shipping Company) or to face great difficulties (“Sanko” shipping Company of Japan “Eletson” Shipping Company). In other words, we expect, by perfect timing, to “build and/or buy ships when their prices are at rock bottom, and their prospect, on their delivery, is a high freight market (basic principle)”! This is, no doubt, a skill of how to kill two birds with one stone…but this is easier than a deceptive forecasting. If forecasting is not available, or possible, then, we believe, perfect timing is the second best. In addition, this dispute is not only a belief among shipping managers, but also among maritime economists, like the leading one Martin Stopford. Our experience from the management of Greek-owned shipping companies is that their managers dispute their own ability of forecasting the markets, in which they do business in. Moreover: “should all management decisions be taken within a perfect timing”? The answer is yes, but certain decisions are so decisive, and their impact many times so greater, so that managers have to give their priority and their utmost focus.īut “why timing is so important”? Because taking a decision at the wrong moment, the cost involved for the company, may be higher, and the benefit derived from it, may be lower, or even negative! This means that timing has to take at least only those decisions, which provide the maximum benefit, in time, by paying the minimum cost, at times, and at all times! The s uccessful shipping management, however, is the only one, which applies perfect timing… Time is the king in shipping industry. However, for the people who are not managers, timing may appear in degrees: bad, good, very good etc. It is the ability to take perfect decisions in time. But what exactly we mean by timing? Timing is a skill, obtained by learn ing or practicing. “Timing of decisions” is very important for Shipping Industry, as this will be shown. More novel contribution was to reveal when is the perfect timing for an IPO,

Timing was detrimental for the existence of a whole shipping company. We showed how prices/costs change for every year of lower age andįor every ton of larger size. There are alsoĮconomies of age of used ships near the latest technology (within 5 years ofĪge). Profits (as well high losses) occur in the spot market. For aĬonservative shipowner with bank loans, a time charter is preferable, but high In spot or time charter market, is like playing in a roulette. Particular, is a good thing provided analogous cargo exists. We showed that economies of scale in new buildings, in We found-out that the rock bottom prices in building and buying ships are preferable than borrowing at rock bottom We showed the difference of borrowing at the 3-months,Ħ-months and 12-months LIBOR. Long-run (time-charter) market? (8) When to float (place an IPO) and why? The 8īig decisions had also 8 serious costs: (1) the capital and financial cost What age and size? (6) When to be in the spot market? (7) When to be in the Vessel? At what price and of what size? (4 - 5) When to buy a vessel and at We analyzed only the 8 big decisions placing them in their perfect timeįramework, or Perfect Timing, using historical data: (1 - 3) When to build a One, the timing process of decision-making, by its managers, is very important. In all industries, but par excellence in Shipping

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